Altcoin Season Setup Advances: CEX Volume Hits Cycle Highs Despite Price Weakness
Altcoin season was widely anticipated for 2025, but the reality has unfolded very differently. Instead of a broad-based rally, most altcoins suffered deep and prolonged drawdowns, erasing years of gains and forcing many investors out of the market. From a technical perspective, the structure reflects prolonged compression. Price is currently oscillating around the 200-week moving average (red), a level that historically acts as a long-term equilibrium zone during transitions between bearish and recovery phases. The failure to reclaim the 100-week and 50-week moving averages suggests that upside momentum remains weak and that buyers lack conviction at higher levels.Related Reading
Volume dynamics reinforce this view. While periodic spikes appear during sell-offs and relief rallies, there is no sustained expansion in volume that would signal broad-based accumulation. This implies selective positioning rather than widespread risk appetite.
Importantly, the market is no longer making aggressive lower lows, indicating that forced selling may be largely exhausted. However, the absence of higher highs keeps the structure neutral-to-bearish. For a meaningful altcoin recovery, OTHERS would need to reclaim the $260–280 billion range and hold above key moving averages.
Until then, the chart suggests consolidation, dominance by larger players, and a market still searching for a durable bottom rather than the start of a classic altcoin season.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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