Bitcoin LTH SOPR Signals Early Capitulation, But Selling Pressure Remains Contained
Bitcoin has been locked in a tight consolidation range since late November, frustrating traders and fueling growing speculation about a major move ahead. Volatility has compressed, price has stabilized near key psychological levels, and market participants are increasingly divided on what comes next. Some analysts argue that this prolonged consolidation is laying the groundwork for a renewed upside recovery, while a broader consensus warns that Bitcoin could still face another leg lower before a sustainable trend emerges. Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin remains above its rising 200-day moving average, which continues to slope upward near the mid-$80,000 region. This suggests that the broader trend remains constructive, even as short-term momentum has weakened. The 100-day moving average has flattened, reflecting a loss of upside momentum, while the 50-day average is still attempting to stabilize after rolling over during the sell-off.Related Reading
Price action over the past several weeks shows a series of higher lows, indicating that buyers are gradually stepping in and absorbing selling pressure. However, volume has declined during this consolidation, signaling a lack of strong conviction from either side of the market. This behavior is typical of compression phases that often precede larger directional moves.
A sustained break and weekly close above $94,000 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a move toward the $100,000–$105,000 range. Conversely, failure to hold above the $86,000–$88,000 support zone would increase downside risk and shift focus toward deeper retracements. For now, Bitcoin remains in balance, building tension for its next decisive move.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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