Why This Bitcoin Price Rally May Not Last

Bitcoin finally looks alive again.

When he looks at this cycle, Nadeau sees signs that all three stages may already be behind us.

Signs the easy money phase is over

Earlier in the cycle, crypto saw explosive growth. DeFi lending boomed. New crypto companies raised huge sums. IPOs and digital asset treasury plays took off. Marketing budgets were everywhere.

Now, much of that energy has cooled.

To Nadeau, this looks less like the start of something new and more like a market that has already had its big run and is now sorting out who stays and who exits.

The one level Bitcoin must reclaim

From a chart perspective, Nadeau is watching one level very closely: the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin lost this level in October and then fell around 35%. Since then, on-chain data shows heavy coin movement, a classic sign of late-cycle rotation.

He expected a bounce back toward this zone, roughly between $101,000 and $102,000, and the recent move into the high $90,000s fits that script.

But here is the catch.

Unless Bitcoin can move above that level and stay there for several weeks, the rally does not become real support. “I’m not convinced this is a durable move,” Nadeau said, stressing that short-term strength alone is not enough.

ETFs are helping, but they are not the whole story

There are some positives. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing fresh inflows, and long-term holders appear less eager to send coins to exchanges, which reduces selling pressure.

Still, Nadeau views these as supportive, not decisive. Without a clear technical breakout, ETF demand alone may not be enough to push Bitcoin into a new long-term uptrend.

Over the next few weeks, Bitcoin will need to prove it can turn resistance into support. If it cannot, this burst of strength could end up being just another pause, not the start of the next major run.

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