Bitcoin bull market ‘confirmed over?’ BTC price sees 4th red monthly candle

Bitcoin (BTC) fought to avoid a fresh price dive at Monday’s Wall Street open as traders increasingly gave up on the bull market.

Key points:

• Many Bitcoin market commentators no longer see the return of the bull market.

• BTC price action sees four consecutive red monthly candles for the third time in history.

• Gold cooling off can still offer crypto a shot, says analyst.

Analyst: “Looks like” $126,000 was BTC price top

Data from TradingView confirmed a roughly 2% bounce for BTC/USD versus the daily open.

Having set new 16-month lows of $74,532 on Bitstamp, the pair fielded more and more bearish predictions, with $74,000 and under now popular.

“The coming sessions are likely to be critical in shaping market direction for the remainder of the quarter,” trading resource QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update. 

“A sustained close below the 74k support level would increase the risk of a deeper drawdown, potentially drawing the broader crypto complex back toward its 2024 trading range.”

Traders had little faith in a true market rebound from current levels.

“Weekly lower low on closing basis. Uptrend confirmed over,” trader Jelle told X followers in one of his latest posts.

“It’ll likely take a while before this turns around again.”

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital agreed that Bitcoin was unlikely to challenge its $126,200 all-time highs from October 2025.

“Looks like that was the top,” he concluded.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed that BTC/USD had closed its fourth straight month in the red with the January close — a phenomenon seen just twice before, during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets.

Gold correction can open crypto “floodgates”

After spending months going in opposite directions, Bitcoin and gold showed some short-term similarities on the day.

Related: BTC price heads back to 2021: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

XAU/USD, which itself experienced a violent breakdown from all-time highs, attempted to stabilize at around $4,700 per ounce.

QCP commented that the reversal on “deeply overbought” gold and silver was tied to the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve.

“This has weighed on demand for non-yielding precious metals, a move reinforced by higher margin requirements imposed by futures exchanges, which accelerated the unwinding of leveraged positions,” it added.

A glimmer of hope appeared for crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe on the back of the latest events.

Bitcoin, he argued, could still repeat historical patterns and follow gold to all-time highs after a statutory delay.

“Historically, when Gold peaks, $BTC follows. When Bitcoin breaks back to $88k+, $ETH follows. That rhythm won’t change, the markets just became slightly more complicated,” an X post on the day stated. 

“I don’t think we’ll see new ATHs for Gold and Silver soon. In some years, yes, but not during 2026. That opens the floodgates towards Crypto.”