Bitcoin flash crash recovery to $100K may take 6 months: Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) closed its weekly candle at $76,931 on Sunday, causing BTC to lose its 100-week moving average for the first time since October 2023. Analysts are now weighing whether the move marks the early stages of a bear market and what this shift may mean for Bitcoin’s recovery in the long term.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below the 100-week simple moving average, a trend linked with multi-month drawdowns.
Past bearish breakouts below the weekly trend lasted between 182 and 532 days.
Heavy spot volume between $85,000 and $95,000 may turn that level into a major resistance.

Bitcoin slips below a long-term weekly trend

Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), which sits near $87,500. This marks a loss of a key macro trend level for BTC.

Crypto proponent Brett noted that, aside from the 2020 COVID-19 flash crash, Bitcoin has spent extended periods below the 100-week SMA. During the 2014 to 2015 cycle, BTC remained under the level for 357 days as prices ranged between $200 and $600 following the 2013 bull market peak.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis — *Bitcoin days below the 100W SMA. Source: Brett/X*

In 2018 to 2019, the period lasted 182 days, coinciding with the bear market bottom between $3,000 and $6,000.

In 2022, Bitcoin spent 532 days below the 100-week SMA after the FTX collapse, consolidating between $16,000 and $25,000.

Each instance led to an accumulation phase rather than a quick rebound, suggesting time may again be the key factor before the next bullish period.

USDT dominance and $85,000 resistance raise bear market risk

Crypto analyst Sherlock said a bear market may emerge after the USDT dominance chart posted a weekly close above 7.2%. In past cycles, a close above 6.7% confirmed bearish conditions, making the recent breakout, its first in more than two and a half years, particularly significant.

The analyst highlighted $85,000 as a key resistance zone. More than $120 billion in spot volume was traded between $85,000 and $95,000 in Q4, 2025, leaving many BTC holders underwater. With BTC near $78,000, any rally toward $85,000 may face steady selling pressure as the traders may look to exit at breakeven, with the realized price of one-to-three-month holders currently at $91,500.

BTC fractal structure mirrors dip from 2022

Bitcoin’s weekly structure is showing similarities to the 2022 dip. At that time, BTC formed lower highs, lost the 100-week SMA, and failed to sustain a recovery before moving into a deeper correction.

A similar pattern is now visible in 2026. If the fractal continues, Bitcoin may revisit the $40,000 to $45,000 range, an established demand zone. While fractals are not predictive, the setup suggests downside risk remains elevated unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims the 100-week SMA.