The Bitcoin Coinbase Discount Is Back: History Says That Is Worth Watching
Bitcoin is holding above $70,000. The number looks resilient. The geography behind it tells a more cautious story. The trend picture is unambiguous. Price remains below both the 50-day MA and the 100-day MA, and both averages are still sloping downward, confirming that bearish momentum has not been neutralized. The 200-day MA continues its descent from the $96,000 region — a level so far above current price that it functions less as near-term resistance and more as a reminder of how much ground has been lost since October’s peak above $125,000.Related Reading
The recent push toward $74,000–$75,000 was rejected. That rejection is meaningful. It establishes the 50-day MA as active resistance, not merely overhead supply, and suggests the current bounce is corrective rather than impulsive — a technical distinction that separates a relief rally from a genuine trend reversal.
Volume confirms the skepticism. The heaviest bars on the chart belong to the selloff and the February capitulation wick to $59,000. Noticeably lighter volume carries the recovery as limited participation and absent conviction stall the trend.
Bitcoin is compressed between $70,000 and $75,000. A decisive close above the latter is required to shift the structure. A loss of $70,000 reopens $65,000 without meaningful support in between.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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