Turkey eyes demining role in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran-US peace talks

Turkey is eyeing participation in demining the Strait of Hormuz following a potential Iran-US peace agreement. The market on Trump announcing the end of military operations against Iran by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 3% yesterday.

Market reaction

Turkey’s potential demining role has prompted traders to reassess ceasefire likelihood, though odds remain low for an announcement by April 30. The 1.1% YES reflects deep skepticism but leaves room for a surprise diplomatic move. For the US invasion of Iran market, Turkey’s involvement in demining points toward a de-escalation path that could affect the December 31, 2026 odds. If other nations follow Turkey’s lead, invasion odds could fall further.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market awaits confirmation of resumed shipping activity. Turkey’s demining role might increase confidence in achieving normal traffic levels, though no odds are available currently. A peace deal could change this outlook sharply.

What to watch

Trading volume in the ceasefire market is $21,291 in actual USDC. It takes only $2,234 to shift the odds by 5 percentage points, making this market extremely reactive to any diplomatic signal. With one day left until the April 30 resolution, traders are likely waiting for concrete signs of de-escalation before committing. At 1¢, a YES share yields a 99x return, but that requires a diplomatic breakthrough within the next 24 hours.

Watch for statements from Turkey and other potential diplomatic players. Any concrete involvement in demining or peace facilitation could move these thin markets fast.

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