Despite Warsh Replacing Powell at the Fed, Traders See No Rate Cut Coming in June

On Polymarket, the Fed Decision in June event has generated roughly $16.48 million in total trading volume as of May 3, 2026. The “No change” outcome holds a 96% probability, priced at 96 cents. A 25 basis point decrease sits at 3.6%, a 25 basis point increase at 1.1%, and both larger moves carry less than 1%.

Polymarket participants point to the March 2026 CPI reading of 3.3% and a stable labor market as the main drivers behind the hold consensus. Those two data points have kept the Fed in a data-dependent posture, and traders are not betting on Warsh breaking from that posture, at least in his first meeting.

Kalshi traders show similar conviction. The “Fed maintains rate” contract on that platform is priced at 95 cents, reflecting a 95% probability of no change. The odds of a 25 basis point cut sit at 6%, and a cut larger than 25 basis points carries a 2% probability. A separate contract tracking whether the fed funds rate stays above 3.25% commands a 98% confidence level.

Total betting volume on the prediction marketplace Kalshi market has reached $3,461,005. The price history shows sharp swings between January and March, when “maintain” and “cut” odds crossed each other frequently. Since April, the hold expectation has trended steadily higher.

The Kalshi market closes at 1:59 PM EDT on June 17, just before the official announcement. By then, Warsh will have chaired his first policy meeting and delivered his first rate decision as Fed chairman. Whether he breaks from the current 350-375 basis point range in June or holds Powell’s line, traders across both platforms have already placed their bets.

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