We had high hopes for the bitcoin price in 2025. It was supposed to be the crescendo of the four-year cycle, the most bullish setup in recent memory. It was the year after the halving, the ETFs had just been approved, a new president was elected, with the promise of the money printer roaring back to life. Everything looked primed for a Q4 blow-off top, and instead of a new life in Monaco, all you got was this lousy article. Prediction: 18–24 months Why: History shows that once the dam gates open, it takes roughly two years to stabilize and reflate. If the official aggressive printing phase begins in late 2025 (as the liquidity uptick and Benner timeline imply, and as M2 shows), it will likely run strong through mid-2027. Prediction: ~$9–$10 trillion in the U.S. Treasury debt is maturing in 2026 alone (about one-third of outstanding marketable debt) and a further $5 – $10 tr globally. Why: As discussed above, the maturity walls for 2026 are nearly double what we faced during the COVID crisis. Yellen extended the pain by leaning on short-term issuance back then, but come hell or high water, that debt has to be paid or refinanced—the money will arrive from somewhere. Because of this, we can expect a new wave of inflation, the 70’s and 80’s have a story to tell about that! Prediction: $250,000 Why: During that $5 trillion COVID expansion, BTC rallied roughly 20x from the $3k–$4k lows to $69k. With the potential for double that liquidity entering the system this cycle, the upside is significant even if diminishing returns apply. From our $16k effective low, a conservative 10x to 12x multiple lands us in the $160k to $200k range as a base case. However, models suggest we could push higher. PlanC’s quantile model points toward $300k+ by the end of 2026, and Giovanni Santostasi’s Power Law projects a peak potentially around $210k early on, with room to stretch as high as $600k in outlier scenarios. But hey, I was expecting +$200k last cycle too. Oh, if the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act moves out of the committee, and if the U.S. Treasury officially starts side-stacking alongside MicroStrategy, all bets are off the table. Prediction: Late 2026 to mid-2027 The Logic: Bitcoin historically tops out 12–18 months after the liquidity expansion enters its “mania” phase. If the ISM Manufacturing PMI crosses back above 50 in early 2026, the perfect storm should unfold throughout 2026, setting up a blow-off top, potentially in the first half of 2027. Bitcoin is unlikely to go straight up, nothing ever does. We’ll almost certainly encounter a few snakes along the way: sharp corrections, regulatory noise, profit-taking, or some form of shenanigans. But the ladders are built, ready and waiting. The Year of the Snake is coming to an end, just ahead of the February 27 CME futures expiry, our potential ignition point, right before the anticipated PMI uptick in Q2. 2025 was a year of snakes and sideways pain, with long-term holders finally capitulated and weak hands flushed out. Now, with a wall of liquidity heading our way, 2026 looks like the ladder we’ve been waiting for. The horse year is coming, so stack and secure accordingly. Good luck. How Long Will The Next Money Printing Last?
How Much LIquidity Will Be Added?
How High Will The Bitcoin Price Go?
When Will The Price Top Out?
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