Analyst Explains Worst-Case Scenario for Bitcoin in 2026
This would mean a final capitulation phase, similar to what has happened in past cycles, before conditions improve later.
The analyst stressed that this outlook represents his worst-case scenario, not his primary expectation. He said that his earlier bullish view included the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000, which would challenge the traditional four-year cycle entirely.
Tom Lee’s Fundstrat’s bear case includes a pullback in the first half of 2026, with Bitcoin potentially falling toward $60,000–$65,000. Ethereum could drop to around $1,800–$2,000, while Solana may fall as low as $50–$75 before stabilizing.
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