Bitcoin Breaks a Bear-Market Pattern—Why a 40% Crash Looks Increasingly Unlikely

After a largely consolidated weekend, Bitcoin price

In the near term, momentum indicators suggest caution. Both RSI and Stochastic RSI have entered overbought territory, signaling rising short-term exhaustion. As selling pressure begins to emerge, Bitcoin could briefly slip below $90,000. However, if the former descending trendline of the triangle holds as support, a quick rebound remains likely. A pullback toward $89,500 could act as a demand retest, while failure to defend this zone may drag the price back inside the consolidation range.

If BTC stabilizes and later reclaims $90,500 with acceptance, a stronger breakout could follow, opening the door for an upside move toward the $93,000–$93,650 resistance band to start the new trading year.

Conclusion: Two Scenarios Going Into 2026

Bitcoin is approaching a technical turning point after weeks of consolidation. If the price holds above the former triangle trendline and secures acceptance above $90,500, bullish momentum could strengthen, opening the door for a move toward the $93,000–$93,650 resistance zone. Such a move would confirm a breakout and reinforce the broader strength seen on higher timeframes.

On the downside, continued selling pressure could drag the Bitcoin (BTC) price back below $90,000. A failure to defend the $89,500 support may push the price back into its consolidation range, extending sideways action and delaying any sustained upside breakout into early 2026.

FAQs

How could Bitcoin’s current consolidation affect investors’ strategy?

Investors may adjust their risk exposure, favoring short-term trading or cautious accumulation rather than aggressive selling. Stable consolidation can encourage long-term holders to maintain positions while monitoring support levels.

Who is most impacted by Bitcoin’s near-term volatility?

Retail traders and short-term speculators are most affected, as sudden price swings can trigger quick gains or losses. Institutional investors may be influenced indirectly, particularly those with leveraged positions or exposure to BTC-based funds.

What factors could influence Bitcoin’s path in early 2026?

Market sentiment, macroeconomic news, regulatory updates, and technical signals like support and resistance zones will all play a role. Unexpected events or shifts in trading volume could quickly alter momentum, affecting both short-term and long-term trends.