Bitcoin Faces Familiar Crossroads As Midterm Cycle Turns Bearish: Analyst
A worst-case scenario is now on the table. Some analysts say Bitcoin could fall as low as $41,000 if a bear flag pattern currently forming on price charts plays out — a warning sign drawing attention as the cryptocurrency trades near $66,000, roughly half of what it was worth at its recent high.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen, who has followed Bitcoin’s multi-year cycles, points to what he calls the mid-cycle dip zone — a phase that typically follows a major bull run and stretches across several quarters.
According to Cowen, midterm years are not crash events. They are cooldown periods. Rallies lose steam. Volatility picks up. Corrections run longer than most investors expect.
That description fits what is happening now. Following a strong run in 2025, Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance has tilted negative, matching the kind of softening seen in prior cycles.
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For long-term Bitcoin holders, the message from analysts is straightforward: this has happened before, and it has always eventually ended.
But the short-term picture offers little comfort. Macro pressures are stacking up at the same moment that Bitcoin’s chart structure is weakening, and there is no clear catalyst in sight to reverse the trend.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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