Bitcoin May Hit $180,000 This Year, But Only If This Scenario Plays Out: Amber Data
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode. Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level. Bear Case Targets $60,000
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Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend.
Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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