Bitcoin Miner Supply Shock Hasn’t Arrived Yet, New Data Suggests
Bitcoin’s miner supply picture remains tighter than in past cycles, but not tight enough to call it a true supply shock. New data from Axel Adler Jr.’s latest Bitcoin Morning Brief suggests miners still retain a meaningful over-the-counter reserve even as exchange-directed selling pressure stays elevated. Still, Adler explicitly pushes back on the idea that the reserve is effectively gone. “The current level is close to the lower bound of the historical range, but claiming the buffer is ‘almost entirely exhausted’ would be an overstatement: more than 150K BTC is still a significant volume,” he wrote. “In recent months the OTC balance has been oscillating within a relatively narrow range, and in February there was even a noticeable upward spike. This looks more like a regime of low but persisting reserve than a final phase of complete buffer depletion.” That framing is the key to the piece. The report does not argue that miner supply is abundant. It argues that the supply backdrop has become structurally tighter than in earlier cycles without yet crossing into outright scarcity. Miners have “substantially less OTC inventory than in past cycles,” Adler said, but the reserve “has not disappeared.” Instead, it “no longer looks large enough to create the same hidden supply overhang the market could see previously.” At press time, BTC traded at $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.comAbout Author
