The Bitcoin NUPL metric is flashing a warning that traders probably don’t want to hear right now. Price action might look bullish on the surface, but underneath the hood the structure of the market is starting to look… shaky.
That hasn’t happened. Instead, the metric shifted from the 0.5–0.75 “Belief/Greed” zone down toward the 0–0.25 “Hope/Fear” range earlier in the year before bouncing back into the 0.25–0.50 region.
Which means the market still contains a large pool of investors sitting on profits. And profitable investors tend to sell eventually.
So while the Bitcoin price chart still reflects resilience and the Bitcoin price prediction debate continues to lean optimistic in some corners, the combination of whale distribution, declining liquidity, and an unconfirmed capitulation phase suggests one uncomfortable possibility.
The current rally might not be a recovery at all but it could simply be a bull trap, with the Bitcoin NUPL quietly hinting the cycle reset isn’t finished yet.
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