Iran ready to negotiate if US lifts naval blockade, market odds drop
Iran’s UN ambassador declared readiness to negotiate once the US lifts its naval blockade. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 15.5%...
Market Analysis
Iran open to talks if US lifts blockade, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely
Iran’s UN ambassador says Tehran is open to talks if the US removes the blockade. Ceasefire by April 30 is...
Trump urges Fed nominee Warsh to cut rates despite low market confidence
President Trump has publicly urged Fed nominee Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates immediately. The likelihood of a 25 basis...
Iran rejects ceasefire extension, US blames Mojtaba Khamenei
Iran has rejected a ceasefire extension, with the US identifying Mojtaba Khamenei as the primary obstacle. The odds of a...
Iran Revolutionary Guards warn of ‘silent battlefield’ amid ceasefire doubts
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are stressing vigilance amid what they call a “silent battlefield.” The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by...
BlackRock buys $900M in Bitcoin, boosting April 2026 $80K odds
BlackRock purchased $900 million in Bitcoin through its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF, and the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching...
Relics of a Revolution, Part IV: The Bank Was Already Burning
Revolutions leave behind artifacts. In the summer of 2011, a painter named Alex Schaefer set up an easel on a...
Pi Network News: Developers Can Now Test Subscription Smart Contracts Before Full Rollout
Pi Network has rolled out Pi Request for Comment 2 (PiRC2), opening its testnet subscription smart contracts for developers and...
Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely, naval blockade remains
Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran just before its expiration. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 15% YES, down from...
Iran ready to strike as US ceasefire odds fall
Iran’s military command has warned it is ready to strike “pre-designated targets” if the US makes any move. The ceasefire-by-April-30...
Iran rejects US talks, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely
Iran has refused further negotiations with the U.S., citing pressure and coercion. The likelihood of a ceasefire by April 30...
Bitcoin spot ETF inflows hit $11.8M amid geopolitical stabilization
Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached $11.84 million on April 21, marking six consecutive days of inflows. The Polymarket contract...
Justin Sun sues Trump-linked World Liberty over disputed token freeze and governance proposal
Justin Sun, the founder of TRON, has taken legal action in a California federal court against World Liberty Financial, a...
Trump cites Iran’s cash crunch amid delayed military salaries
Trump claims Iran is experiencing tight cash liquidity conditions. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 14.5% YES, down...
Trump claims Iran is financially collapsing, markets remain skeptical
Trump declared Iran is “collapsing financially,” citing massive daily losses. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by April 30...
