Trump’s nuclear comment impacts US-Iran peace deal market, odds drop sharply
Trump’s comment on retrieving Iranian “nuclear dust” after any deal has driven the April 22 permanent peace deal market down...
Market Analysis
Iran retains 40% of drones, 60% of missiles despite 13,000 strikes
After more than 13,000 strikes, Iran still holds roughly 40% of its attack drones and 60% of its missiles. The...
KelpDAO exploit causes AAVE ETH pool to utilization
The KelpDAO exploit created bad debt on Aave after the attacker deposited RSETH to borrow ETH. Ethereum utilization on Aave...
Trump, Iran report progress in talks amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty
Trump and Iranian officials have acknowledged progress in negotiations, but uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz persists. The market for...
US deploys 12 warships to enforce blockade of Iranian ports
The US has stationed over 12 warships, including destroyers and an aircraft carrier, to enforce a blockade of Iranian ports....
Trump warns US bombing could resume if no Iran deal reached
Trump says the US blockade remains in place and bombing could resume if no deal is reached. Odds of a...
Iran orders Indian ship to halt in Strait of Hormuz escalation
Iran’s military ordered an Indian vessel to halt its passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The market on whether fewer...
Iran, US issue conflicting statements on Strait of Hormuz
Iran and the US issued contradictory statements about the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace...
IRGC fires on vessel in Strait of Hormuz, UK warship passage seen as unlikely
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) opened fire on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, reasserting control over the...
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks, impacting diplomatic meeting odds
Pakistan’s diplomatic push to mediate US-Iran talks has moved odds on Polymarket. The “no qualifying meeting by June 30” market...
Strait of Hormuz cleared after Iranian attacks on commercial ships
The Strait of Hormuz has been cleared following Iranian attacks on commercial ships. The market for fewer than 10 ships...
Iran’s erratic stance on Hormuz raises doubts about reliability in talks
Lisa Daftari’s analysis calls out Iran’s erratic position on the Strait of Hormuz, questioning its reliability as a negotiating partner....
Israel schools to reopen Sunday after ceasefire with Lebanon, Iran
Israel’s Ministry of Education confirmed schools will fully reopen Sunday following a ceasefire with Lebanon and Iran. The Netanyahu tenure...
US says Iran retains 40% of attack drone arsenal
The US reports that Iran retains 40% of its attack drone arsenal. The Polymarket contract on whether Iran will strike...
Trump, Iran standoff over Hormuz continues as ceasefire deadline approaches
Trump and Iran remain at loggerheads over the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump maintaining a blockade and Iran retaliating with...
