Iran leadership infighting stalls US diplomatic progress
Iran’s leadership infighting is slowing diplomatic progress with the US. The market for no qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30,...
Market Analysis
US energy exports hit records amid Middle East supply chain disruptions
US energy exports have reached record levels as Middle East conflict disrupts global supply chains, but the Polymarket contract for...
US oil exports hit record as Iran conflict disrupts global supply
American oil and gas exports are setting all-time records as the Iran conflict disrupts global supply, with the crude oil...
Iran’s IRGC poses ongoing threat in Strait of Hormuz, report warns
A Hudson Institute report says the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to pose an asymmetric naval threat in the...
EU leaders consider mutual defense clause as US-NATO tensions rise under Trump
EU leaders are preparing to activate the mutual defense clause in Article 42.7 amid strained US-NATO relations under President Trump,...
Israel seeks US approval to resume military action against Iran
Israel is seeking US consent to restart military operations against Iran, pushing the permanent peace deal by April 30 market...
Eric Swalwell hires private investigator amid sexual misconduct allegations
Eric Swalwell has retained a private investigator while facing mounting sexual misconduct allegations. The market for Swalwell’s resignation by May...
US ends Iranian, Russian oil waivers, tightening sanctions
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US will not renew waivers for Iranian and Russian oil purchases. The Polymarket contract...
Journalist Amal Khalil killed in Israeli strike amid Lebanon ceasefire talks
Journalist Amal Khalil was killed in an Israeli strike in Lebanon, but the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30...
USS Rafael Peralta enforces blockade on Iranian vessel in Strait of Hormuz
The USS Rafael Peralta enforced a blockade on an Iranian-flagged vessel, pushing Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by June to...
Nvidia market cap surpasses $5T amid AI semiconductor demand
Nvidia’s market cap has crossed $5 trillion again, and the Polymarket contract for it being the largest company by April...
VanEck Flags Dual Bullish Signals for Bitcoin as Funding Turns Negative, Hash Rate Slips
Bitcoin’s latest onchain and derivatives data point to a constructive setup, with VanEck highlighting negative funding rates and a clustered...
Quantum Break: Researcher Wins 1 BTC for Largest ECC Attack Ever
Post-quantum startup Project Eleven has today awarded a 1 BTC ($77,736 at writing time) prize to the independent researcher Giancarlo...
US carriers in Middle East amid Israel-Iran conflict, oil price surge unlikely
Four coalition aircraft carriers, including three from the US, are now positioned in the Middle East as part of Operation...
Russian, UAE ministers push for renewed Middle East peace talks
Russian and UAE foreign ministers are calling for renewed talks aimed at a Middle East agreement. The Israel-Iran permanent peace...
