CVDD Model Signals Bitcoin Is Not Yet Deeply Undervalued: Drawdown Lags Historical Cycles
Bitcoin has been consolidating since late November, struggling to establish a clear directional bias as the market searches for stability ahead of the next volatility wave. After failing to sustain momentum above the October 2025 highs, price action has shifted into a broad range, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors. While some market participants interpret this pause as a potential base for continuation, others remain cautious, pointing to historical bear market behavior for context. The recent bounce from the December lows near $86,000 lacked strong follow-through, suggesting that demand remains cautious rather than aggressive. While buyers have managed to defend higher lows in the short term, each upside attempt has been capped near the descending moving averages, highlighting persistent overhead supply.Related Reading
Volume has also declined during the consolidation phase, signaling a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears.
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin appears to be forming a basing pattern rather than initiating a reversal. Holding above the $88,000–$90,000 support zone is critical to avoid a deeper retracement toward the mid-$80,000s.
However, a sustained recovery would require a decisive reclaim of the $95,000–$98,000 region, where key moving averages converge. The current price action is best interpreted as consolidation within a broader corrective phase rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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