US officials warn of potential conflict with Iran if peace talks fail
U.S. officials have indicated that conflict with Iran could resume imminently if peace talks fail. The odds of Trump announcing...
have
Trump, Iran report progress in talks amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty
Trump and Iranian officials have acknowledged progress in negotiations, but uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz persists. The market for...
Iran maintains Strait of Hormuz blockade amid US-Iran tensions
Conflicting messages from the US and Iran about the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp drop in prediction market...
Gunfire reported as two vessels attempt to cross Strait of Hormuz
Two vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have reported gunfire incidents. The likelihood of the UK sending warships...
Sanctioned tankers pass through Strait of Hormuz despite US blockade
Sanctioned tankers Crave and Gardian have passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite the US blockade. The market on Strait...
US destroyers intercept Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
Washington Post reports U.S. destroyers have forced three Iranian tankers to turn back and are pursuing two others. Strait of...
XRP classified as digital commodity, enabling US exchange listings and ETFs
The U.S. SEC and CFTC have classified XRP as a digital commodity, but the Polymarket contract for XRP surpassing $1.80...
Iran-linked ships cross US blockade line in Gulf of Oman
Iran-linked ships have crossed a US blockade line in the Gulf of Oman. The market on “Trump announces US blockade...
Moscow’s Soviet-style tactics dim Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prospects
Daniel Fried’s comments on Moscow’s return to Soviet-style escalation tactics have pushed the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire outlook slightly lower. The ceasefire...
Elon Musk Pushes ‘Universal High Income’ Checks as Ultimate Solution for AI Unemployment
Key Takeaways: While they have promoted several proposals, including the establishment of AI taxes and investment funds that would benefit...
Iraq resumes southern oil exports after month-long Strait of Hormuz halt
Iraq’s southern oil exports have resumed after a month-long halt caused by the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The market on...
Israel strikes 100 Lebanon sites, complicating Hezbollah ceasefire prospects
Israel’s airstrikes on over 100 sites in Lebanon have further complicated ceasefire prospects with Hezbollah. The market for a ceasefire...
Cerebras, Rebellions secure record funding; Nvidia’s market position remains strong
Cerebras and Rebellions have closed record funding rounds, but Polymarket’s odds on Nvidia being the largest company by market cap...
Bitcoin miners halt sales, whales accumulate 270,000 BTC since February
Miners have stopped selling Bitcoin since February, while whales have amassed 270,000 BTC. The Bitcoin price above $62,000 on April...
When Is the Best Time to Buy Altcoins? Analyst Reveals Timeline
Altcoin season in 2026 remains uncertain as key conditions for a strong rally have not yet fallen into place. The...
