Iran eases transit restrictions for Iraq, but US-Iran ceasefire odds drop
Iran has eased restrictions for Iraq, allowing unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and reopening borders for trade and...
Hormuz
Iran reopens borders for trade and pilgrims, but ceasefire odds remain low: FT
Iran is allowing Iraq to transit the Strait of Hormuz and has reopened borders for trade and pilgrims. The US-Iran...
Trump gives Iran 10 days to negotiate or face Strait of Hormuz reopening
Trump has given Iran 10 days to either strike a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of...
Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid Israel-Iran military escalation
Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil facilities and Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have hit the probability of a...
US-Iran ceasefire odds plummet as tensions rise over Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s enforcement of new rules in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened tensions, with the US dismissing Iran’s ceasefire conditions....
UN security council rejects force resolution; Iran to keep hormuz closed
The UN Security Council rejected a resolution to use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military confirmed the...
Iran hints at reopening Strait of Hormuz, ceasefire odds drop
Iran’s suggestion of reopening the Strait of Hormuz signals possible de-escalation. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have...
Iran threatens long-term strait closure as US plans tariffs
Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz long-term has rattled markets. The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by April...
Iran’s largest bridge collapses amid crisis
Iran’s largest bridge collapsed on April 2, 2026, during the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The market for the Iranian regime’s...
Iran’s oversight proposal in Strait of Hormuz drops ceasefire odds
Iran’s plan for tanker oversight in the Strait of Hormuz and its identification of strike targets have lowered the odds...
Omani LNG carrier attempts transit through Strait of Hormuz
An Omani-managed LNG carrier is attempting a transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 30...
Iran Demands Crypto or Yuan for Safe Passage Through Hormuz
Iran is tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz, asking some ships to pay transit fees in cryptocurrency or Chinese...
China offers to mediate hormuz crisis, impacting ceasefire odds
China is ready to mediate the Hormuz crisis, affecting US-Iran ceasefire odds. The chance of a ceasefire by April 30...
Iran fortifies islands, complicating US military campaign
Iran’s reinforced control over islands near the Strait of Hormuz has put US forces in a bind. The odds of...
Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz complicates ceasefire prospects. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 7.5% YES, down from...
