Iran rejects US talks, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely
Iran has refused further negotiations with the U.S., citing pressure and coercion. The likelihood of a ceasefire by April 30...
Negotiations
White House signals progress in US-Iran talks amid heightened tensions
The White House has signaled progress in US-Iran negotiations, suggesting a “good deal” is near. On Polymarket, the odds of...
White House signals progress in US-Iran talks amid heightened tensions
The White House has signaled progress in US-Iran negotiations, suggesting a “good deal” is near. On Polymarket, the odds of...
Vice President Vance returns to Pakistan for Iran peace talks ahead of deadline
Vice President Vance is heading back to Pakistan for another round of peace negotiations with Iran, with the US-Iran permanent...
Iran accuses Trump of turning talks into capitulation amid stalled diplomacy
Iran’s top negotiator accused Trump of trying to turn negotiations into capitulation. The market for “no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting...
Pakistan mediates US-Iran ceasefire talks amid market volatility
Pakistan is acting as intermediary in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations hosted in Islamabad. The ceasefire extension market for April 21 sits...
Vance stays in US, delaying potential US-Iran talks amid G20 focus on trade impact
Vice President JD Vance remains stateside, delaying potential US-Iran negotiations. The market for a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026,...
Iran denies Trump’s negotiation claims amid diplomatic stalemate
Trump’s claims of active negotiations with Iran have been denied by Iranian officials, with US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds sitting below...
Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz, exits talks, accuses US of attack plans
Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, withdrew from peace negotiations, and accused the US of planning an attack. The...
Iran demands national interest in talks, US oil sanction relief unlikely
Iran’s National Security Committee is demanding that negotiations conform to national interests, and the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian...
Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if talks fail
President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if negotiations fail, pushing the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown market to 99.6% YES, up...
Trump, Iran talks to continue in Islamabad tomorrow amid ceasefire hopes
President Trump announced that negotiations between the US and Iran will continue in Islamabad tomorrow. The market for a ceasefire...
Iran insists on nuclear rights, complicating US negotiations
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s assertion of Iran’s nuclear rights has complicated US negotiations. The probability of Iran agreeing to end...
Iran’s uranium enrichment stalls US talks, ceasefire odds fall
Iran’s refusal to abandon uranium enrichment has stalled U.S. negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market is at 37.5% YES, down from 59%...
Trump, Iran report progress in talks amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty
Trump and Iranian officials have acknowledged progress in negotiations, but uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz persists. The market for...
