U.S. Government Shutdown 2026 Odds Spike to 76%, Crypto at Risk

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The crypto market

If this occurs, non-essential workers are sent home without pay, while essential staff continue working and get paid later.

Why the Senate Vote Is So Uncertain

The funding bill needs 60 votes to pass the Senate. Right now, Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats and aligned Independents control 47, making the outcome uncertain.

Tension has grown because of recent incidents involving federal immigration agents. In Minneapolis, federal agents fatally shot Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse, during a protest against immigration enforcement. Protests have continued across several U.S. cities, with both parties demanding answers and accountability.

The issue has added political pressure ahead of the funding deadline, as lawmakers argue not only over dollars, but also how federal agencies carry out their work.

How Crypto Could React

The last major U.S. government shutdown ended in November after nearly 43 days. During that period, crypto markets saw high volatility, not a full collapse. 

As of now, markets are not reacting because of politics alone, but more to the loss of visibility. 

In past shutdowns, key data like jobs and inflation reports were delayed, making it harder for traders to price risk. Therefore, Bitcoin fell 9%, dropping from around $103,000 to $94,000, while altcoins slid 12%–25% due to lower liquidity.

If another U.S. government shutdown happens, the bitcoin and crypto market will see another short-term collapse. 

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FAQs

Which federal agencies would be affected by a shutdown?

Non-essential operations at agencies like DHS, FEMA, and TSA could stop, while essential staff continue working but may face delayed pay.

How have past government shutdowns affected the crypto market?

During the last shutdown, Bitcoin fell 9% and altcoins dropped 12%–25% due to delayed economic data and lower market liquidity.

Could a government shutdown cause a crypto market crash?

Yes, a shutdown could trigger short-term crypto volatility, with Bitcoin and altcoins likely to fall due to uncertainty and delayed data.

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