VanEck’s crypto heat index flashes first Bitcoin bull call since 2025 bottom
Key Takeaways
The MarketVector Crypto Heat Index has triggered a buy signal for the first time since early April 2025, according to Martin Leinweber of MarketVector Indexes.
The MarketVector Crypto Heat Index is a data-driven “thermometer” for the crypto market, showing when it is undervalued, neutral, or overheated. Unlike fear-based sentiment gauges, it uses structural and technical signals plus moving averages to trigger systematic buy or sell alerts as the market shifts between these zones.
With a reading of 16.8%, the MarketVector Crypto Heat Index has entered deep ‘Undervalued’ territory. Leinweber notes that the index’s proprietary moving averages have just crossed into bullish territory, interpreting this low valuation as a signal to accumulate.
“Breadth stabilizing. More constituents outperforming Bitcoin. Signs that capitulation-level sentiment may be behind us,” Leinweber wrote via his official X account today.
“For investors still underallocated to crypto, this could be an opportune moment to reassess portfolio exposure rather than react later to price momentum. Sentiment appears near cycle lows,” the analyst stated.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets, reposted the analysis, saying that their proprietary breadth model triggered the first bullish signal for Bitcoin in months.
🚨 🚨 Proprietary* VanEck breadth signal flags first BTC bull call since April 7, 2025, the bottom tick last year. https://t.co/kq1fxcBVDg pic.twitter.com/dxUz2BlfEP
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 5, 2026
VanEck has previously highlighted Bitcoin’s potential for a rebound in 2026 following a period of underperformance. Analysts at the firm have noted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle suggests recoverable performance this year amid improving liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin changed hands at around $93,700 at press time, up 7.5% in the last seven days, per CoinGecko. The digital broke past $91,000 over the weekend and extended its rally throughout Monday amid rising tensions between the US and Venezuela.
Update [Jan. 7, 8:27 PM]: An earlier version of this story misidentified MarketVector Indexes as a subsidiary of VanEck. MarketVector is an independent provider, and the MarketVector Crypto Heat Index is its own proprietary product. References to VanEck’s ownership of the index have been removed.
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