Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows
Bitcoin has pushed back above the $92,000 level after spending several days trapped below $90,000, offering a brief sense of relief to a market that has remained under pressure since late 2025. The rebound has helped stabilize short-term sentiment, but confidence remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that 2026 could evolve into a broader bear market, citing weak spot demand, fading momentum, and persistent sell-side activity from larger participants. Price is currently trading below the declining short-term moving average (blue), which has acted as dynamic resistance since the November sell-off. While BTC has managed to reclaim ground above the 200-day moving average (red), this level is still relatively flat, signaling stabilization rather than renewed bullish momentum. The medium-term moving average (green) around the $100,000 area remains a critical barrier that bulls have not yet challenged meaningfully.Related Reading
The recent bounce occurred with moderate participation, lacking the expansion typically associated with strong trend continuation. This suggests short covering and tactical buying rather than broad-based demand returning to the market.
Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be forming a range between roughly $88,000 and $96,000. Holding above the lower bound would keep the consolidation intact, while a failure back below $88,000 would reopen downside risk toward the mid-$80,000s.
For now, the price action reflects relief and stabilization, but confirmation of a sustainable uptrend still requires a decisive reclaim of higher resistance levels.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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