Why Bitcoin Could Be Headed For Another Drop: Research Firm Cites Three Key Risks
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding below the key $70,000 level. Still, a new report from data and research firm Ecoinometrics suggests that the market may not be building a base for recovery. By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 has stalled for roughly three months, but its 200-day moving average is still rising. That suggests equities are slowing but have not yet entered a confirmed structural downturn. The distinction is important. When Bitcoin weakens on its own, declines can unfold gradually. However, history shows that when equities roll over decisively, Bitcoin tends to fall sharply alongside them. Beyond price action, the firm highlights a deeper structural shift in Bitcoin’s behavior: a marked compression in volatility. In prior cycles, 12-month realized volatility surged dramatically during both bull markets and subsequent crashes. This time, even after a full bear-bull-bear sequence since 2022, volatility has not returned to those previous extremes. In fact, peak volatility in the current cycle has been materially lower. This change reflects who is driving demand. ETF flows now play a dominant role in shaping trends. These flows are typically larger, steadier, and more systematic than the retail-driven surges that characterized earlier cycles. Bitcoin, in other words, has become embedded within institutional portfolios, often sitting alongside technology and growth stocks. That shift brings advantages, including lower volatility and more predictable flow patterns. It may also strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term durability. However, it comes with a trade-off: deeper sensitivity to equity market drawdowns. Ecoinometrics asserts that as BTC becomes more integrated into the broader risk-on complex, it behaves more like a component of that system rather than a detached speculative asset. On the policy front, Ecoinometrics suggests the Fed’s posture remains largely unchanged: inflation has improved but is not fully contained, and the labor market remains resilient. Lower Volatility, Higher Correlation
Downside Risks Grow
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As a result, rate cuts are not urgent, and rate hikes are not imminent. The communications index sits well below the tightening peak seen in 2022 and far above the crisis-level dovishness of 2020, placing current policy in the middle ground.
For Bitcoin, that steady stance removes the risk of a sudden policy shock, but it does not provide a tailwind. The firm said in a fragile market, stability may be preferable to tightening, yet it offers little support if risk assets begin to slide.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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