Bitcoin Last Line Of Defense Revealed: Can BTC Price Still Go To $40,000?
Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,400, which is almost 48% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025, and a technical analysis is
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @leshka_eth On X
The Macro Trendline In Every Bitcoin Cycle
The broader structure becomes clearer when looking at the long-term trendline drawn across multiple Bitcoin cycles. The trendline, which is drawn on the weekly candlestick chart from 2018 through to a projected 2028, connects the deepest cycle lows that formed during extended bearish price action.
In late 2018, Bitcoin topped out, collapsed, and fell to the trendline in 2020 before entering a prolonged accumulation phase near the lows. It then finally surged into the 2021 cycle top. The same structure repeated in the 2022 bear market: Bitcoin crashed from its peak, returned to the macro trendline in 2023, accumulated, and launched into a new cycle that carried it to $126,080 in October 2025.
Related Reading
That trendline is now around the $40,000 price level. According to the analyst, if $60,000 holds, then the cycle survives. If it breaks, $40,000 becomes the bottom and accumulation starts over, Leshka.eth wrote in the post on X.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
About Author
