Bitcoin freeze proposal sparks debate on quantum risks, supply impact

A proposal to freeze 5.6 million dormant Bitcoin addresses has triggered debate over quantum computing risks and potential supply disruption. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin dipping below $68,000 by April 24 sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders assign no meaningful probability to a crash from this proposal.

## Market reaction

The April 24 market has not moved, holding at 0% YES. Trading conditions are thin: actual USDC traded is just $55 against a face value of $91,229. It takes only $503 to shift the market by 5 points, which means a single large order could move the price significantly. The largest price adjustment in the past 24 hours was negligible.

## Why it matters

If enacted, freezing 5.6 million Bitcoin addresses would remove a large chunk of supply from circulation, potentially causing liquidity shocks and forced repricing across Bitcoin markets. A YES share at 0¢ offers no payout, which reflects traders’ current disbelief that this proposal leads to a significant downturn. The flat market could mean traders doubt the proposal will be adopted, or that they don’t think it would push Bitcoin below $68,000 even if it were.

## What to watch

Track any developments on the BIP-361 proposal itself, including whether it gains support among Bitcoin Core developers. Comments from figures like Larry Fink or Jerome Powell on quantum computing risks or Bitcoin supply dynamics could shift institutional sentiment. If large orders start appearing on the contract, the thin liquidity means prices could move fast.

## API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.