Bitcoin price eyes $96K as institutions absorb 500% of daily BTC supply

Bitcoin (BTC) may rally toward $96,000 by June as institutions absorb more than five times the daily mined BTC supply, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.

BTC price averages 24% gains after institutional supply squeeze

In a Monday post, Edwards said institutions have been “slurping up 500%+ of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply.”

BTC/USD daily chart vs. institutional buying market cap. Source: Capriole Investments

Since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin miners have produced roughly 450 BTC per day, keeping supply growth relatively stable, with its rate of change (ROC, the red line) hovering near 0.0022% as of Monday.

In contrast, institutional buying’s ROC (blue) stood near 0.0139%, showing demand momentum rising more than five times faster than new supply growth.

Renewed ETF inflows and steady BTC purchases by Michael Saylor’s Strategy have helped drive that demand. They added roughly 70,000 BTC in April, more than approximately 13,500 BTC mined during the same period.

US Spot Bitcoin ETF monthly net flows and Strategy’s BTC holding. Source: Glassnode, BitBo.IO

“Every time it’s been this high before, price has shot up over the next week,” said Edwards, adding:

“The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month from here, that would take us to around $96K.”

Edwards noted that when institutional absorption exceeds 500% of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply, BTC has historically delivered ~24% average gains over the following month, which would put the price around $96,000 by June.

Similar targets have also been shared by analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who said Bitcoin may “easily” reach $95,000, citing renewed demand for spot BTC ETFs and other technical factors.

Bitcoin sharks accumulate over 61,000 BTC in 30 days

Onchain data shows the supply squeeze extends beyond ETFs and corporate buyers.

Bitcoin “sharks,” entities that hold 100–1,000 BTC, have accumulated over 61,000 BTC in the past 30 days, according to data resource Glassnode.

BTC shark net position change vs. price. Source: Glassnode

Smaller cohorts, including “fishes” holding 10–100 BTC and “crabs” holding 1–10 BTC, are also net accumulators during the same period.

BTC fish and crab net position change vs. price. Source: Glassnode

The data shows that both mid-sized investors and retail participants are steadily absorbing supply, raising BTC’s odds of hitting $96,000 over the next few weeks if the demand persists.

Still, some analysts warrant caution, citing a prevailing bear flag setup.

In a Monday post, trader Bitbull highlighted $60,000–$62,000 as a potential downside target if BTC corrects from the flag’s upper trendline toward the lower trendline.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView/BitBull

A breakdown below the lower trendline may send the BTC price under $50,000.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.