Bitcoin To $750K? Arthur Hayes Drops Bombshell Prediction Amid Iran War
Arthur Hayes was wrong before. In December, the BitMEX co-founder predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by March 2026. It didn’t. Bitcoin He made this case publicly in a Substack post, where he wrote that investors could find a meaningful entry point once the Fed begins cutting rates or expanding the money supply. He named Bitcoin and a handful of what he called high-quality altcoins as the assets best positioned to benefit once that shift begins. The key moment, in his view, is not the conflict itself but what comes after. Rate cuts and fresh liquidity, he argues, are what actually move prices.A Pattern Hayes Has Bet On Before
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The Gap Between The Forecast And The Chart
Bitcoin’s current price tells a different story from Hayes’ projections. The coin sits roughly half its October peak of $126,000. While gold and oil climbed after US and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Bitcoin did not follow. It sold off initially before recovering to current levels.
That disconnect — commodities rallying while Bitcoin lags — has not shaken Hayes’ outlook. His $500,000 to $750,000 call remains intact, pinned to the belief that monetary policy, not headlines, is what ultimately drives the price. Whether the Fed moves in that direction depends on how long and how costly the conflict becomes.
Featured image from US Air Force, chart from TradingView
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