Bitwise: Geopolitical Chaos Might Push Bitcoin Over $1 Million
Key Takeaways:
On social media, Hougan stressed that this new possibility of bitcoin becoming a “traditional currency,” while unlikely, was not as far-fetched as it could have been considered some years ago, pointing to the announcement of Iran seeking to take $1 in bitcoin per oil barrel as Hormuz Strait toll, raking up $20 million a day, as evidence.
He stressed that this showed a “reality that transcends the current conflict: In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative.”
In this regard, Hougan likened this bet to an out-of-the-money call option, explaining that during the Iran conflict, two conditions for this to happen appeared: An increased probability of bitcoin being used in a currency-like manner and a rise in the volatility of the global monetary order.
Before, he had estimated that bitcoin could reach up to $1 million by capturing 17% of the $38 trillion store-of-value market over the next decade. But now, as bitcoin has the opportunity to expand its uses beyond this already established narrative, the goal could be set even higher.
“If bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value (like gold) and an actual currency (like the dollar), we may need to revise our targets higher,” Hougan concluded.
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