Iran-linked ships cross US blockade line in Gulf of Oman
Iran-linked ships have crossed a US blockade line in the Gulf of Oman. The market on “Trump announces US blockade...
Market Analysis
Moscow’s Soviet-style tactics dim Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prospects
Daniel Fried’s comments on Moscow’s return to Soviet-style escalation tactics have pushed the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire outlook slightly lower. The ceasefire...
Iran ties Strait of Hormuz access to ceasefire terms
Iran is tying Strait of Hormuz access to ceasefire terms. The market for diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30...
Trump frustration raises questions about Netanyahu’s political future
Trump’s dissatisfaction with Israeli actions has sparked speculation about Netanyahu’s tenure, with odds for Netanyahu stepping down by June 30...
Antalya Quartet backs Pakistan’s mediation in US-Iran talks
The Antalya Quartet has endorsed Pakistan’s mediation efforts between the US and Iran, but the market for a US-Iran diplomatic...
Trump declines NATO aid in Persian Gulf, strains US-Europe ties
US President Donald Trump declined NATO’s offer of assistance in the Persian Gulf, pushing odds of a US withdrawal from...
Iran denies uranium transfer to US, impacting market probabilities
Iran’s denial of transferring enriched uranium to the US has pushed the odds for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium...
Crypto Fear and Greed Index hits “Greed” for first time since October 2025
The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index has reached “Greed” for the first time since October 2025, while the Polymarket...
Israeli ceasefire with Lebanon reflects US pressure, not public sentiment
Political commentator Abed Abou Shhadeh claims the Israeli ceasefire with Lebanon reflects US pressure rather than Israeli public sentiment. The...
Trump announces US-Iran joint uranium excavation plan
Trump’s announcement of a US-Iran joint excavation to retrieve enriched uranium has moved prediction markets. Odds for the US obtaining...
Trump predicts quick resolution with Iran, hints at oil sanction relief
Trump predicts a quick resolution with Iran despite hawkish rhetoric. The market for Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits...
Israeli troops demolish homes in Lebanese border towns amid ongoing hostilities
Israeli troops are demolishing homes in Lebanese border towns they control, according to Lebanese media. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire...
Hezbollah warns Lebanon’s president against meeting Netanyahu, risking talks
Hezbollah warned Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun against meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, putting diplomatic talks at risk. The market...
Trump announces US-Iran uranium extraction partnership at ‘leisurely pace’
Trump announced a U.S.-Iran partnership to extract enriched uranium at a “leisurely pace,” and the market for US obtaining Iranian...
