Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC

Key Takeaways:Source: CME Fedwatch tool on April 2

Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC

Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC

Key Takeaways:

Source: CME Fedwatch tool on April 26, 2026.
Source: Polymarket on April 26, 2026.
Source: Kalshi on April 26, 2026.

Both platforms resolve their annual cut markets using the same framework. Each 25-basis-point reduction counts as one cut. A 50-basis-point move counts as two. Emergency cuts outside of scheduled meetings are included. Kalshi closes its market Dec. 31, 2026, with payouts projected for Jan. 1, 2027.

Traders will next watch the April jobs report and updated CPI data for any signs that the calculus is shifting. Until those numbers arrive, the market’s working assumption is that the Fed stays put.

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