Figure Technology Solutions Stock Down 60% From Highs — Bernstein Calls It a Buying Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Origination volumes have climbed steadily. Bernstein noted that monthly loan volumes crossed $1 billion for the first time in March 2026, reaching $1.2 billion, up 33% month-over-month. Q1 2026 originations totaled $2.9 billion, more than double the same period a year earlier, putting the company on a roughly $12 billion annualized run rate. Bernstein projects full-year 2026 loan volume at $12.8 billion, a 53% increase year-over-year. Home equity lines of credit are expected to account for about $11.1 billion of that total, with newer categories including auto loans, small business loans, and residential transition loans contributing approximately $1.7 billion. Figure Connect, the company’s tokenized marketplace, is central to that growth projection. Bernstein expects the platform to handle 56% of total volumes in 2026, up from 46% in 2025. The platform processed roughly 54% of volumes in Q4 2025. Figure holds approximately 75% market share in the $17 billion tokenized private credit market. Revenue grew 48% over the trailing 12 months as of the March note. Bernstein projects a 48% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2027, applying a 25x EV/2027 EBITDA valuation multiple to arrive at the $67 target. Q4 2025 results, reported in February, showed profit growth of 156% and revenue near $160 million. On Monday, Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating and gave Figure a $67 target. FIGR shares are up 6.9% over the past month and the stock shed 5% over the last five trading sessions. Other analysts are more cautious. Mizuho cut its price target from $55 to $45 on March 26, while maintaining an outperform rating. Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform in February with a $42 target. Needham lowered its target from $71 to $55 but kept a buy rating. Piper Sandler raised its target to $75 with an overweight rating in January. Among 11 analysts tracked by Marketbeat, two rate the stock a strong buy, five rate it a buy, one holds, and three have issued sell ratings. The average price target stands at $53.75. That’s presently lower than the Bernstein analyst’s current $67 target. Marketbeat stats show institutional investors have taken small new positions. Wells Fargo lifted its stake by 3.5% in Q4 2025 to 18,429 shares. Global Retirement Partners, Strs Ohio, MetLife Investment Management, and Flagship Harbor Advisors each established new positions during the same quarter. FIGR shares have traded in the $31 to $34 range in early April 2026, down roughly 24% year-to-date and approximately 60% from their 52-week high.About Author
