IEA warns of oil price spikes if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
IEA chief warned markets about major price spikes if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened, but the WTI Crude Oil market prices the likelihood of WTI hitting $160 in April at
## Market reaction
The strait’s closure is tied to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the U.S., and Israel, which has disrupted global oil supplies. In the WTI $160 April market, a YES share pays $1 if WTI hits that level this month, but at 0% odds, traders treat this as a non-event.
For the Crude Oil Price Predictions by June market, the $90 target by end of June hasn’t attracted a YES price yet either, with 75 days remaining. Traders are watching, but the IEA warning alone hasn’t moved the needle.
## Why it matters
Combined 24-hour volume across these markets sits at zero face value, meaning there’s almost no active trading. Thin markets like these can move sharply on a single large order. Any significant trade could shift the odds quickly.
If the strait stays closed, the supply shock will ripple through global oil markets. At 0% YES, a bet on WTI hitting $160 requires belief in a dramatic escalation or breakthrough within the next two weeks. That’s a long shot, but the IEA’s warning signals that the downside scenario is real, not hypothetical.
## What to watch
Statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and the U.S. President are the most likely catalysts. Any diplomatic moves or military escalations could reprice these markets fast. The $90-by-June market is the more plausible mover if tensions persist.
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