Iran’s former foreign minister proposes nuclear deal amid low ceasefire odds
Iran’s former foreign minister proposed limiting the nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% from 2% yesterday.
The market reflects skepticism. April 7 sits at 1% YES, April 15 at 6%, and April 30 at 18%. Odds for a ceasefire by May 31 rise to 36% YES, indicating traders expect a potential catalyst by then.
Trading volume is significant, with $431,402 in USDC daily. The order book for April 7 is thin, needing just $12,352 to shift the price by 5 points. A single large order could sway the market.
The proposal lacks official support, making it unlikely to influence traders. A YES share at 1¢ offers a 100x return if a ceasefire occurs by April 7, but without signs of imminent talks, it’s a gamble.
Watch for changes in rhetoric from Trump, Rubio, or intermediaries like Oman. Statements from CENTCOM or Iranian leaders could also impact market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
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