Mixed Signals: Bitcoin Options Show 58% Calls vs 42% Puts as Price Holds Steady
Key Takeaways: The most actively held options bet on Deribit is a call contract giving buyers the right to purchase bitcoin at $80,000 before May 29, with 7,493.7 BTC worth of open positions sitting behind it. Close behind is a December 2026 call targeting $120,000, holding 6,600 BTC in open interest, followed by a June 2026 call at the $90,000 strike with 6,362.7 BTC. On the bearish side, the largest put contract is a December 2026 position that pays out if bitcoin falls to $60,000, carrying 5,298.9 BTC in open interest. CME options open interest stacked by expiration shows contracts due in one to two months dominating the structure. The CryptoQuant chart covering mid-2025 through early May 2026 shows a sharp contraction from the November 2025 peaks, when total CME options OI approached 70,000 contracts. Current levels are running between 8,000 and 14,000 contracts per expiration cycle. The CME put-versus-call breakdown, logged by Cryptoquant, shows puts consistently outpacing calls in USD terms through February and March 2026 before leveling off. Call interest has started to rebuild through April, though both categories remain well below the late-2025 highs. Max pain levels vary by exchange heading into the May 3 expiry. Deribit places the current max pain level near $78,000, with longer-dated expirations showing a downward curve toward $69,000 and below for the March 2027 contract. The June 2026 expiry shows the largest notional value on Deribit at roughly $9 billion. Binance‘s max pain data shows a different curve. The May 29 expiry carries a max pain level near $75,000 and the largest notional bar, while the June 26 contract sits at approximately $75,000 in max pain as well. The September 25 expiry pushes toward $84,000 before the curve drops back again. OKX max pain for the May 3 expiry reads near $65,000, one of the more bearish near-term readings across exchanges. The March 2027 contract shows a sharp upward spike in notional value with a max pain level climbing back toward $78,000. With bitcoin at $78,418, it sits above the near-term max pain levels on Binance and OKX but essentially on top of Deribit’s reading. Options dealers managing exposure near expiry could be a quiet force shaping price action through the weekend.About Author
