Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz remains closed

1 minute ago

Oil prices are surging as the Strait of Hormuz rem

Oil prices are surging as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April is priced at 1.4% YES, unchanged from yesterday.

Market reaction

The odds for WTI Crude hitting $160 in April have barely moved, holding at 1.4% YES after an earlier spike to 26%. Traders appear to be pricing in the supply disruption while also factoring in possible diplomatic intervention or other mitigating factors. The market’s largest single-day move was a 25-point spike, showing sharp sensitivity to geopolitical developments.

Volume sits at $2,814 in USDC traded over 24 hours, a moderate level. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market has seen zero volume, which suggests traders doubt a quick resolution. The order book requires $1,655 to move the WTI market five points, a thin book where large orders can cause outsized swings.

Why it matters

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of global oil transit, has sharply raised the probability of price spikes. The odds of WTI reaching $160 remain low at 1.4%, but the potential for sudden volatility is real. In related markets, the chance of Strait traffic normalizing by the end of April looks poor.

Iran’s aggressive posture and the resulting supply disruption have traders on edge. A YES share at 1.4% is a long shot but pays out substantially if tensions escalate further. Any signs of de-escalation could quickly collapse these odds.

What to watch

Announcements from Trump’s administration or Iran’s Foreign Ministry could signal shifts in the blockade. There are 12 days left until the resolution of the Strait traffic normalization market.

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