Radev’s coalition secures majority, likely next Bulgarian PM

Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition secured a parliamentary majority, positioning him as Bulgaria’s likely next Prime Minister. The market for Radev becoming Prime Minister sits at 98.7% YES, up from 76% a week ago.

Bulgaria held its eighth election in five years, and Radev’s decisive win may break the cycle. Radev, a former president and Eurosceptic, has opposed military support for Ukraine, which could shift Bulgaria’s position within NATO and the EU. The April 19 sub-markets are at 98.7% YES with just one day left until resolution.

The market trades $25,908/day face value, with $24,076 in actual USDC. Order book depth shows $3,810 needed to shift the odds by 5 points, which is solid liquidity. The largest single move was a 4-point drop to 91% at 3:21 PM, suggesting some traders are taking profit ahead of a likely YES resolution.

Radev’s coalition victory ends years of political fragmentation in Bulgaria and could redirect the country’s foreign policy, particularly on Ukraine. At 98.7¢, a YES share pays $1 if Radev becomes Prime Minister, a 1.09x return. The bet now hinges on whether Radev can form a stable government without major defections or last-minute collapses.

Watch for President Iliana Iotova’s formal nomination and any coalition agreements with GERB-SDS. Radev’s swearing-in would definitively resolve this market.

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