Ukraine repels massive drone swarm amid Russian strikes on critical infrastructure
## Market Snapshot Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions are currently priced at 0.1% YES for April 30 and 6.8% YES for May...
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Hezbollah drone attack dims hopes for long-term Israel ceasefire
Hezbollah’s drone attack during a ceasefire has dimmed hopes for a long-term truce. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by...
Ukrainian drone attack ignites Tuapse oil refinery, escalating energy strikes
A Ukrainian drone attack has again set ablaze the Tuapse oil refinery, continuing Kyiv’s campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. The...
ZetaChain Halts Cross-Chain Activity After Contract Attack
ZetaChain has paused cross-chain transactions after an attack targeted its GatewayEVM contract, a core component used for cross-chain transfers. The...
Attempted attack on Trump at White House Correspondents’ Dinner
An attempted attack on Donald Trump during the White House Correspondents’ Dinner has occurred as the market for Trump publicly...
Hezbollah drone attack on Israeli helicopter prompts IAF investigation
The Israeli Air Force has opened an investigation into a Hezbollah drone attack on an IAF helicopter during a mission...
Netanyahu orders forceful attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has directed his forces to “forcefully” attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The odds of a...
Bomb attack in Colombia kills 14 ahead of presidential election
A bomb attack in Colombia killed 14 and injured over 38, raising security concerns before the presidential election. Vicky Dávila’s...
Russia missile attack on Ukraine kills 4, injures 30, says Zelenskiy
Russia’s overnight missile attack on Ukraine killed four people and injured over 30, according to President Zelenskiy. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire...
France mourns soldiers killed in Hezbollah attack in Lebanon
France lost two soldiers and saw three others wounded in a Hezbollah attack in southern Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by...
Iran labels ship attack as aggression amid rising diplomatic tensions
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has labeled an attack on a commercial ship as aggression. The market for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting...
Iran retains 40% of drones, 60% of missiles despite 13,000 strikes
After more than 13,000 strikes, Iran still holds roughly 40% of its attack drones and 60% of its missiles. The...
US says Iran retains 40% of attack drone arsenal
The US reports that Iran retains 40% of its attack drone arsenal. The Polymarket contract on whether Iran will strike...
Lebanon to investigate UNIFIL attack amid Hezbollah tensions, Macron says
Lebanon has pledged to investigate the UNIFIL attack, while Polymarket contracts on Israeli military action in Beirut by April 1,...
Iran’s “mosquito fleet” impacts Strait of Hormuz shipping contracts
Iran’s “mosquito fleet” of small attack craft, central to its anti-access/area-denial strategy, is driving market movement in Strait of Hormuz...
