US, Iran near agreement to end conflict with one-page memorandum
## Market Snapshot Israel airspace closure by May 8 is currently priced at 2% YES, down from 8% in the...
closure
Israel orders evacuations in Lebanon amid military escalation
## Market Snapshot Israel’s airspace closure market is currently priced at 1.6% YES for May 8 and 16.5% YES for...
Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
## Market Snapshot In the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure market, the probability of an effective closure by May 31 is...
Iran accuses US of killing civilians, raising airspace closure risks
## Market Snapshot Iran’s airspace closure market shows a 22.5% YES probability for closure by May 8, up from 14%...
Iran warns ships, redirects traffic amid Bab el-Mandeb tensions
## Market Snapshot Bab el-Mandeb Strait Closure market is currently priced at 10.5% YES, down from 11% a day ago....
Iran’s IRGC warns US of narrowing window amid regional tensions
## Market Snapshot Iran’s potential airspace closure market is currently priced at 12.5% YES for a May 8 resolution, down...
Israel-Iran energy conflict escalates, potential Iran airspace closure looms
## Market Snapshot Iran Airspace Closure market shows a current price of 16.5% YES for May 8, down from 24%...
US ships 6,500 tons of munitions to Israel amid rising Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot Iran Airspace Closure market currently shows 14.5% YES for a full closure by May 8, down from...
Iran vows to protect missile, nuclear tech amid US tensions
## Market Snapshot Iran Airspace Closure: Currently priced at 14% YES for a closure by May 8, down from 24%...
Pirates hijack oil tanker off Yemen, raising Bab el-Mandeb Strait concerns
## Market Snapshot Bab el-Mandeb Strait Closure market currently shows 11% YES for May 31, down from 14% 24 hours...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, tensions rise with US strategy mockery
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and public derision of U.S. strategy have pushed odds sharply lower on a...
Iran drone attacks close Strait of Hormuz, doubling Dutch TTF gas prices
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by Iranian drone attacks, has intensified Europe’s energy crisis. The odds of...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, tanker traffic collapses 90%
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed tanker traffic, with fewer than 10 ships expected to transit the...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, halting ship transit and trapping sailors
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted transit, trapping thousands of sailors and making it near-certain that fewer...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil markets amid supply concerns
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rattled oil-related prediction markets, but the odds of WTI Crude Oil hitting...
