Ukraine repels massive drone swarm amid Russian strikes on critical infrastructure
## Market Snapshot Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions are currently priced at 0.1% YES for April 30 and 6.8% YES for May...
Drone
IDF drone strike kills Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon amid rising tensions
An IDF drone killed a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon, and the odds of Israel withdrawing from Lebanon by April...
Hezbollah drone attack dims hopes for long-term Israel ceasefire
Hezbollah’s drone attack during a ceasefire has dimmed hopes for a long-term truce. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by...
Zelensky praises Ukrainian drone strikes deep in Russia, ceasefire odds unchanged
Zelensky praised Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Orsk and Perm, 1,500 km behind the front lines. The Russia x Ukraine...
GCC summit in Saudi Arabia focuses on Iranian missile threat
GCC leaders are meeting in Saudi Arabia to address Iranian missile and drone attacks, but the Polymarket contract for military...
Ukrainian drone attack ignites Tuapse oil refinery, escalating energy strikes
A Ukrainian drone attack has again set ablaze the Tuapse oil refinery, continuing Kyiv’s campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. The...
Hezbollah drone attack on Israeli helicopter prompts IAF investigation
The Israeli Air Force has opened an investigation into a Hezbollah drone attack on an IAF helicopter during a mission...
Iran missile, drone strikes on Gulf states continue, US Ambassador warns
The US Ambassador to the UN highlighted ongoing Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf states. The market for Iran...
Drone incursion from Lebanon triggers sirens in northern Israel
Sirens sounded in northern Israel following a drone incursion from Lebanon. On Polymarket, the contract for Israel announcing a suspension...
Iran drone attacks close Strait of Hormuz, doubling Dutch TTF gas prices
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by Iranian drone attacks, has intensified Europe’s energy crisis. The odds of...
Iranian-backed militias intensify drone attacks on Gulf states, hitting key targets
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have intensified drone attacks on Gulf states, hitting targets including Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu refinery and Kuwait’s airport....
Iran retains drone, missile capabilities amid high tensions with Israel
US intelligence reports that Iran retains significant drone and missile capabilities. The Polymarket contract on military action against Israel by...
US says Iran retains 40% of attack drone arsenal
The US reports that Iran retains 40% of its attack drone arsenal. The Polymarket contract on whether Iran will strike...
Iran boosts drone production tenfold after 12-day war with US-Israel coalition
Iran has increased its destructive drone production by ten times following the 12-day war with the Israel-U.S. coalition. The likelihood...
Iran drone attack on Bahraini facility extinguished with no casualties
Iran’s drone attack on a Bahraini facility was extinguished with no casualties. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market...
