US destroyers cross Strait of Hormuz under Iranian fire, escalating tensions
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market reflects a heightened likelihood of escalation, with pricing suggesting increased probabilities...
escalation
CENTCOM plans targeted strikes on Iran amid military escalation talks
CENTCOM’s plan for short, powerful strikes on Iran has pushed discussion of military escalation, though the market for UK strikes...
US-Iran talks stall, Trump signals possible escalation
The US-Iran negotiations have hit a snag, with the Trump administration signaling possible escalation if no deal is reached. The...
Iran warns US maritime actions risk decisive military response
Iran’s warning of a decisive response to US maritime actions has traders watching for potential escalation. The market for Iran...
US deploys three aircraft carriers to Middle East, escalating military presence
The deployment of three US aircraft carriers in the Middle East marks a major military escalation, and odds on the...
Iran military on high alert as US ceasefire deadline approaches
Iran’s military is on high alert, signaling potential escalation as the ceasefire with the US faces expiration. Odds for a...
Moscow’s Soviet-style tactics dim Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prospects
Daniel Fried’s comments on Moscow’s return to Soviet-style escalation tactics have pushed the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire outlook slightly lower. The ceasefire...
Oil prices surge past $112 as Iran regime change odds fluctuate
Trump indicated potential escalation against Iran starting April 7. Odds for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30 are...
Iran’s regime fall odds rise to 13.5% after rejecting Trump’s offer: sources
The Iranian regime faces potential escalation after rejecting Trump’s offer, with the odds of the regime falling by June 30...
Trump warns of military escalation if Iran deal not reached by Tuesday
President Trump has warned of military escalation if Iran fails to reach a deal by Tuesday. The odds of the...
Trump’s threat drops US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% for April 7
Trump’s threat of escalation if no Iran deal by Monday drops US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% YES for April 7,...
Odds of US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1% amid escalating tensions
Iran’s warning of potential escalation has driven the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 down to 1% YES. This...
US strike on Iranian bridge signals military escalation, ceasefire odds plummet
The US strike on an Iranian bridge aimed at halting weapons movement signals a military escalation. Ceasefire by April 7...
Trump’s Iran speech signals escalation, dims ceasefire odds
Trump’s latest speech hints at continued military escalation in Iran, reducing the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 to...
US-Israel strikes hit Tehran-Karaj bridge, ceasefire odds drop
The US-Israel strikes on the Tehran-Karaj bridge signal a military escalation. Ceasefire by April 7 is now at 8% YES,...
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