Ceasefire odds plummet as Trump threatens Iran, traders eye May for movement
Trump’s threat of strikes on Iran and Iran’s warning of retaliation have plummeted ceasefire odds. The April 7 ceasefire market...
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Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s infrastructure as ceasefire odds plummet
Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. The odds for a ceasefire by...
Viral song boosts odds of Iranian regime collapse to 13.5% by June 30
A satirical song by a London-based Iranian artist celebrating the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader has gone viral. Odds for...
Ceasefire odds plummet as Iran’s missile launches escalate tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and recent missile launches have dashed hopes for a ceasefire by April 7,...
Traders raise odds for US ground troops in Iran to 86% by April 30
Alan Eyre claims seizing Iran’s enriched uranium would require risky ground forces. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is...
Traders raise odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 to 86.5%
Alan Eyre’s comments about possibly needing US ground forces to seize Iran’s enriched uranium have traders reevaluating the odds. US...
Iraqi PMF forces enter Iran, raising odds of US troops entering by April 30 to 86%
Iraqi PMF forces have reportedly entered Iran’s Khuzestan province to support the Iranian regime. This has pushed the odds of...
Iran’s missile cities raise odds of US ground forces entry to 86.5% by April 30
Iran’s underground missile bases, or “Missile Cities,” are bolstering its ballistic missile arsenal despite ongoing US-Israel airstrikes. With 2,500-6,000 missiles...
Odds of US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1% amid escalating tensions
Iran’s warning of potential escalation has driven the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 down to 1% YES. This...
Iran open to bilateral diplomacy as ceasefire odds remain low: FT
Iran’s Parliament speaker expressed willingness for bilateral diplomacy with neighbors. The US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 7 are at 1%...
Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid escalating US-Iran tensions and military strikes: FT
Iran’s call for a permanent ceasefire clashes with rising conflict. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to...
Ceasefire odds drop as Iran faces attacks, April 7 now at 1.1% YES
Iran’s call for a permanent end to the conflict is marred by new attacks on Khuzestan’s petrochemical sites and Israeli...
Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid Israel-Iran military escalation
Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil facilities and Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have hit the probability of a...
Iran’s refusal to meet US officials drops ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7
Iran’s refusal to meet US officials in Islamabad and its rejection of American demands have caused the ceasefire odds by...
US military activity in Iran drives prediction market surge for troop presence
A US combat search-and-rescue mission is active in Iran’s Khuzestan province after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down. The...
