Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open, oil prices fall over 10%
Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” has sent oil prices down over 10%, and prediction markets...
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Iran denies uranium transfer to US, impacting market probabilities
Iran’s denial of transferring enriched uranium to the US has pushed the odds for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium...
Iran rejects US ceasefire terms, tensions rise amid ongoing hostilities
The likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 5.5% YES, pressured by active hostilities and Iran’s rejection...
Trump claims Iran suspends nuclear program indefinitely
Trump announced Iran’s indefinite suspension of its nuclear program. The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April...
Trump claims US will secure Iran’s enriched uranium
Trump announced on Truth Social that the US will obtain Iran’s enriched uranium. The market for US obtains Iranian enriched...
EU plans joint action on jet fuel amid potential Hormuz blockade shortage
The EU is preparing joint action on jet fuel in response to a potential aviation fuel shortage if Iran’s blockade...
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards signal military readiness, raising conflict concerns
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared a “finger on the trigger” readiness, signaling potential military escalation. The April 21 ceasefire end market...
Iran regime collapse risk repriced as strategic failures mount
Reports of Iran’s strategic failures and significant damage have moved traders to reprice regime collapse risk. The odds for the...
US expands blockade to target Iran’s shadow fleet, signaling oil export crackdown
The US blockade now targets Iran’s “shadow fleet,” extending enforcement beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalcy...
Iran endorses Israel-Lebanon ceasefire as part of US-brokered deal
Iran’s Foreign Ministry endorsed the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, framing it as part of a larger agreement with the...
Pentagon targets Iran’s fast-attack fleet with anti-drug tactics
The Pentagon is adapting tactics used against Caribbean drug traffickers to target Iran’s fast-attack fleet. Kharg Island control by April...
US Navy blockade halts Iran oil exports, impacts China supply chain
The U.S. Navy’s blockade on Iranian ports has stopped Iran’s oil exports for over 48 hours, cutting off a major...
Iran demands US commitments, impacting peace deal timeline
Iran’s demand that the US meet its commitments has driven down odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22,...
Iran demands framework before new talks, stalling US-Iran meeting prospects
Iran’s insistence on establishing a framework before new talks has weakened prospects for a US-Iran meeting by April 30. The...
Iranian launchers ready to sink US warships, advisor warns
An advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader claimed that Iranian launchers are prepared to sink all US warships, pushing down the...
