Iran accuses US of attacking commercial ship, escalating tensions
Iran’s military accused the US of attacking an Iranian commercial ship, escalating tensions. Gulf state military action against Iran by...
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Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz traffic, US blockade lift uncertain
Iran’s decision to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening it has traders reconsidering the likelihood of...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, halting ship transit and trapping sailors
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted transit, trapping thousands of sailors and making it near-certain that fewer...
Iran proposes tolls on Strait of Hormuz amid oil market volatility
Iran’s VP Mohammad Reza Aref has suggested imposing tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, while the Polymarket contract for WTI...
Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, market doubts WTI hitting $160 in April
Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament referenced “vibe-trading” in digital crude oil markets, citing a Bloomberg Terminal command for Dated Brent...
Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented US challenge by April 2026: WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports that removing Iran’s enriched uranium would be an unprecedented challenge for the U.S. The Iran...
Iran postpones Khamenei burial amid airstrike fears
Iran’s decision to postpone burying Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reflects the regime’s fear of airstrikes during a public funeral, and...
Iran expects ceasefire extension with US, plans talks in Pakistan
Iran’s National Security Committee head announced expectations for a ceasefire extension with the US and plans for talks in Pakistan....
Trump’s potential Islamabad visit coincides with drop in US-Iran peace deal odds
Trump’s potential visit to Islamabad for talks with Iran’s president has coincided with a sharp drop in peace deal odds....
Iran demands national interest in talks, US oil sanction relief unlikely
Iran’s National Security Committee is demanding that negotiations conform to national interests, and the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil markets amid supply concerns
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rattled oil-related prediction markets, but the odds of WTI Crude Oil hitting...
Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if talks fail
President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if negotiations fail, pushing the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown market to 99.6% YES, up...
Iran signals potential threat to Bab el-Mandeb strait amid missile arsenal boost
Iran’s renewed threats to target global straits, including Bab el-Mandeb, have moved prediction market odds. Bab el-Mandeb closure by April...
Iran’s Digital Blockade Continues: Citizens Endure 50 Days Without Internet Connectivity
Key Takeaways: Almost all of the population is now confined to the National Information Network, Iran’s intranet, while whitelisted individuals...
Trump vows retaliation after Iran shoots down US F-15 jet
Trump’s angry response to Iran’s shootdown of a U.S. F-15 jet points to continued conflict. The market for military action...
