Mojtaba Khamenei named Iran’s Supreme Leader, stabilizing regime outlook
Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader has pushed down the odds of a regime fall by May 31, with...
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Iran proposes bypassing leadership disputes on nuclear concessions
Iran’s proposal to sidestep internal leadership disputes over nuclear concessions has moved prediction markets. The chance of a US-Iran nuclear...
Iran leadership split on Trump’s uranium demands, nuclear deal unlikely by April 30
Axios reports internal disagreement within Iran’s leadership on Trump’s uranium demands. The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April...
Iran cites energy leverage as US-Iran peace deal odds drop
Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf suggested Tehran retains leverage against the US, citing “energy and shipping cards.” The US-Iran...
Trump’s demand for US control of Iran’s nuclear material stalls deal prospects
Trump’s push for US control of Iran’s nuclear material has collapsed market odds. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30...
Iran warns of retaliation, raising crude oil supply disruption concerns
Iran’s Vice President Esmail Saghab Esfahani warned of retaliation against countries supporting attacks on Iran’s infrastructure. The Crude Oil Predictions...
US-Israeli strikes, blockade strain Iran’s economy amid regime change speculation
US-Israeli strikes and a US naval blockade are putting heavy pressure on Iran’s economy. The odds of the Iranian regime...
Oman mediates US-Iran talks, no breakthrough on uranium stockpile surrender
The Sultan of Oman met with Iran’s Foreign Minister to discuss regional developments and mediation efforts. The odds of Iran...
Iran mining in Strait of Hormuz renews UK warship deployment speculation
Iran’s mining activities in the Strait of Hormuz have renewed speculation about UK warship deployment, but the odds of the...
Iran refuses talks under pressure, reinforcing uranium enrichment deadlock
President Masoud Pezeshkian declared Iran’s refusal to engage in talks while under pressure or blockade. Odds for Iran agreeing to...
Iran warns US against renewed aggression amid conflict fears
Iran’s armed forces have warned the US against renewed aggression, raising fears of wider conflict. The probability of Iran’s military...
Trump’s “Anaconda Plan” targets Iran with naval blockade, sanctions
Trump’s “Anaconda Plan” aims to choke Iran’s economy through a naval blockade and sanctions. The market for Trump agreeing to...
Iran firm on uranium enrichment demands, agreement unlikely by April 30
Iran’s Foreign Minister reiterated key demands during his visit to Islamabad, and the likelihood of Iran agreeing to end uranium...
Iran warns US maritime actions risk decisive military response
Iran’s warning of a decisive response to US maritime actions has traders watching for potential escalation. The market for Iran...
Iran condemns US blockade of ports as ‘collective punishment’
Iran’s High Council for Human Rights condemned the US blockade of Iranian ports, calling it “collective punishment” against civilians. The...
