Iran hardliners stall US peace talks, diplomatic progress falters
Iran’s hardliners are blocking pragmatic diplomatic positions in US-Iran talks. The likelihood of a peace deal by April 30 now...
likelihood
EU explores defense options outside NATO amid US withdrawal concerns
The European Union is exploring defense options outside NATO, potentially increasing the likelihood of a U.S. withdrawal from the alliance....
Iran firm on uranium enrichment demands, agreement unlikely by April 30
Iran’s Foreign Minister reiterated key demands during his visit to Islamabad, and the likelihood of Iran agreeing to end uranium...
Trump-Iran meeting unlikely by April 30 amid stalled Middle East talks
The likelihood of a diplomatic meeting between Trump and Iran by April 30 has dropped to 2.4% YES, down from...
Long-term holders absorb 303K Bitcoin, stabilizing price above $60K
Long-term holders absorbed 303K Bitcoin in the past 30 days, pushing the likelihood of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April...
BlackRock clients invest $246.8M in Bitcoin amid geopolitical hedge strategy
BlackRock clients have bought $246.86 million worth of Bitcoin. The likelihood of Bitcoin being above $68,000 today is at 99.9%...
Iran rejects US talks, ceasefire by April 30 unlikely
Iran has refused further negotiations with the U.S., citing pressure and coercion. The likelihood of a ceasefire by April 30...
Trump claims Iran is financially collapsing, markets remain skeptical
Trump declared Iran is “collapsing financially,” citing massive daily losses. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by April 30...
Iran-Middle East tensions drive inflation, Fed rate hike likely in 2027
The likelihood of a Fed rate hike in 2027 is now 69%, as markets price in continued tightening driven by...
Anthropic’s AI raises fears of $100M+ crypto hack by year-end
Anthropic’s release of Claude Mythos Preview has pushed traders to price the likelihood of another $100M+ crypto hack by December...
Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, disrupting US diplomatic efforts
Iran’s decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed has disrupted diplomatic efforts, and the likelihood of Donald Trump announcing...
Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz, halting commercial shipping
Iran has re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, making it commercially unusable. The likelihood of 80 ships transiting by April 30...
Gunfire reported as two vessels attempt to cross Strait of Hormuz
Two vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have reported gunfire incidents. The likelihood of the UK sending warships...
Traders see US-Iran conflict resolution, oil prices hit $90 amid disruptions
Traders are pricing in a growing likelihood of US-Iran conflict resolution, with the odds of a permanent peace deal by...
Iran rejects US ceasefire terms, tensions rise amid ongoing hostilities
The likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 5.5% YES, pressured by active hostilities and Iran’s rejection...
