Russian drones enter Romanian airspace, escalating NATO tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?” currently prices at 1.6%...
NATO
NATO chief signals improved US-Europe ties, reducing withdrawal likelihood
## Market Snapshot The “US Withdrawal from NATO Timeline” market currently prices at 1.7% YES for a June 30 resolution,...
Trump considers reducing US troops in Germany, raising NATO concerns
## Market Snapshot In the “US Withdrawal from NATO Timeline” market, the June 30 sub-market is currently priced at 1.7%...
Trump orders 5,000 US troops out of Germany amid NATO tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will the US withdraw from NATO before 2027?” is currently priced at 0.1% YES...
Trump considers pulling US troops from Italy, Spain amid NATO tensions
## Market Snapshot The “US Withdrawal from NATO Timeline” market currently prices a 1.4% likelihood of the U.S. withdrawing by...
Leaked Pentagon memo suggests punitive measures against NATO allies escalate tensions
A leaked Pentagon memo suggesting punitive measures against NATO allies like Spain has escalated US-NATO tensions under the Trump administration....
EU explores defense options outside NATO amid US withdrawal concerns
The European Union is exploring defense options outside NATO, potentially increasing the likelihood of a U.S. withdrawal from the alliance....
US considers expelling Spain from NATO over Iran stance
Reports that the US is contemplating expelling Spain from NATO for not backing military action against Iran have drawn attention...
White House crafts NATO ‘naughty and nice’ list amid Iran conflict tensions
The White House is crafting a NATO “naughty and nice” list based on allies’ support for the Iran conflict. The...
White House crafts NATO ‘naughty and nice’ list amid Iran conflict tensions
The White House is crafting a NATO “naughty and nice” list based on allies’ support for the Iran conflict. The...
White House crafts NATO ‘naughty and nice’ list amid Iran conflict tensions
The White House is crafting a NATO “naughty and nice” list based on allies’ support for the Iran conflict. The...
Macron pushes for trust to reopen Strait of Hormuz, impacting ceasefire odds
French President Macron stressed the importance of trust in alliances like NATO and called for Iran’s cooperation to reopen the...
Kremlin offers to mediate Iran war, calls NATO hostile
The Kremlin has labeled NATO a hostile alliance but is ready to mediate the Iran conflict. A ceasefire by April...
