US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz blockade resolution unlikely by May 31
Talks between the US and Iran have stalled, pushing the Polymarket odds for the US lifting the Strait of Hormuz...
Polymarket
US-Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices soar 30%
RBOB gasoline futures surged 5%, and the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 15%...
If UN Notes Are Not Enough: What Counts as Evidence in Decentralized Markets?
The evidence problem behind the Polymarket disputeThe dispute around Polymarket’s “US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026” market...
US base damage in Gulf highlights UK-Iran strike contract on Polymarket
Damage to U.S. military bases in the Gulf has drawn attention to a Polymarket contract on whether the UK will...
GCC summit in Saudi Arabia focuses on Iranian missile threat
GCC leaders are meeting in Saudi Arabia to address Iranian missile and drone attacks, but the Polymarket contract for military...
Strategy buys 3,273 Bitcoin for $255M amid Strait of Hormuz crisis
Strategy purchased 3,273 BTC for $255M, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. On Polymarket, the contract for Bitcoin reaching...
Report: Polymarket Targets Full US Return as CFTC Talks Advance
Key Takeaways: Polymarket held discussions with the CFTC in recent weeks to lift its 2022 ban and bring its main...
Report: Polymarket Targets Full US Return as CFTC Talks Advance
Key Takeaways: Polymarket held discussions with the CFTC in recent weeks to lift its 2022 ban and bring its main...
Report: Polymarket Targets Full US Return as CFTC Talks Advance
Key Takeaways: Polymarket held discussions with the CFTC in recent weeks to lift its 2022 ban and bring its main...
CFTC Sues Wisconsin Over Prediction Market Ban
Key Takeaways: The CFTC sued Wisconsin on April 28, 2026, defending Kalshi and Polymarket against state gambling law enforcement. Wisconsin...
CFTC Sues Wisconsin Over Prediction Market Ban
Key Takeaways: The CFTC sued Wisconsin on April 28, 2026, defending Kalshi and Polymarket against state gambling law enforcement. Wisconsin...
CFTC Sues Wisconsin Over Prediction Market Ban
Key Takeaways: The CFTC sued Wisconsin on April 28, 2026, defending Kalshi and Polymarket against state gambling law enforcement. Wisconsin...
ECB inflation forecast as market doubts rate cut
The European Central Bank’s latest survey shows three-year inflation forecasts at 3.0%, and the Polymarket contract for a 50+ bps...
Euro area CPI expectations jump amid energy price shocks
Euro area 1-year CPI expectations have jumped to 4%, up from an estimated 2.8%, while the Polymarket contract for a...
Iran oil storage nears capacity as US blockade cuts exports
Iran has 12-22 days of oil storage capacity left as a US naval blockade continues, and the Polymarket contract for...
